TRG Fast Facts
By TRG Advisors on November 7, 2025
Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy
Tariffs on Trial
Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism on Wednesday over the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, questioning whether he overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Lower courts have ruled that Trump lacked the legal basis to impose reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs, which could generate $3 trillion in revenue by 2035. With the potential for $750 billion in refunds if the tariffs are struck down, the case marks a pivotal test of executive power and trade policy.[i]
Payroll Pulse
Private companies added 42,000 jobs in October, according to ADP’s monthly report released Wednesday, beating expectations and easing concerns about labor market weakness. The gains were driven entirely by large firms with 250 or more employees, while small businesses shed 34,000 jobs. With the government shutdown halting the release of the official nonfarm payrolls report, ADP’s data serves as this month’s primary snapshot of employment trends.[ii]
Lyft Loyalty Takes Flight
Lyft and United Airlines announced on Wednesday the launch of a new loyalty partnership allowing riders to earn MileagePlus miles for eligible trips booked through the Lyft app. Starting in early 2026, riders will also be able to redeem miles for rides directly in the app and receive alerts and reminders for upcoming United flights. [iii]
Amazon Fuels AI Growth
OpenAI signed a $38 billion cloud infrastructure deal with Amazon Web Services on Monday, marking its first major partnership with AWS and a shift away from exclusive reliance on Microsoft. The agreement gives OpenAI access to massive compute capacity to support training and inference for advanced AI models. AWS will build out additional infrastructure to support OpenAI’s growth through 2026 and beyond. [iv]
Kimberly-Clark Acquires Kenvue
Kimberly-Clark announced on Monday a $48.7 billion acquisition of Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol, aiming to create long-term value for shareholders. The deal brings together household names like Kleenex, Huggies, Neutrogena, and Band-Aid under one of the largest consumer staples companies globally.[v]
Bond Boost
Last Friday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced a new 4.03% composite rate for Series I bonds, effective November 1 through April 30, 2026—up slightly from the previous 3.98%. This rate includes a 3.12% variable portion tied to inflation and a 0.90% fixed portion, which remains constant for the life of the bond. Current I bond holders will see rate adjustments based on their original purchase date, with changes now in effect as of Nov. 1.[vi]
[i] Mangan, Dan. “Supreme Court begins hearing Trump tariffs case.” CNBC, 5 November 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/supreme-court-trump-trade-tarrifs-vos.html. Accessed 5 November 2025.
[ii] Cox, Jeff. “Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October, more than expected and countering labor market fears, ADP says.” CNBC, 5 November 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/private-payrolls-rose-42000-in-october-more-than-expected-and-countering-labor-market-fears-adp-says.html. Accessed 5 November 2025.
[iii] Subin, Samantha. “Lyft, United launch loyalty program after Delta partnership ends.” CNBC, 5 November 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/lyft-united-loyalty-program-miles.html. Accessed 5 November 2025.
[iv] Sigalos, MacKenzie. “OpenAI signs $38 billion deal with Amazon, first partnership with AWS.” CNBC, 3 November 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/open-ai-amazon-aws-cloud-deal.html. Accessed 4 November 2025.
[v] Coleman, Julie. “Kimberly-Clark CEO talks Kenvue acquisition, calls Tylenol brand ‘resilient’.” CNBC, 3 November 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/kimberly-clark-kenvue-tylenol-resilient.html. Accessed 4 November 2025.
[vi] Dore, Kate. “Treasury: Series I bond rate is 4.03% through April 2026.” CNBC, 31 October 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/treasury-i-bond-rate-through-april-2026.html. Accessed 4 November 2025.