TRG Fast Facts

By TRG Advisors on October 11, 2024

Weekly data-driven insights on the markets and economy

1. Milton Has an Eye on Florida

With the potential to become another “once-in-a-century” event, Hurricane Milton’s damage estimation is approaching $175 billion in a worst-case scenario. Milton was weakening a touch on Tuesday, but still carrying 145 mph winds. The only sliver of good news is that the storm does not pose the same danger to the adjoining states that Helene hit just a week ago.[i]

2. U.S. Economy on Good Footing, but Markets Fearful

Equities struggled on Monday, after soaring last Friday due to the stronger than expected jobs report, and stronger than expected upward revisions. Midday Tuesday the Dow was up slightly to 41,996, the S&P at 5,732, and the Nasdaq being the strongest of the three up more than 180 to 18,104. Most traders note that given the strength in jobs, November’s Fed meeting will likely include no rate cut at all, after there was a 50bps cut expectation by nearly 1/3 of traders last week.[ii]

3. Key Borrowing Rate Sneaks North of 4%

Just days after digesting the stronger than expected September jobs report, traders were awaiting this week’s September CPI and PPI numbers out Thursday and Friday, respectively. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was just above the 4.00% rate Tuesday, a number not seen in months. The data this week could provide hints whether the Fed will cut rates or do anything at all during the November Fed meeting.[iii]

4. Housing Markets Benefit from Falling Mortgage Rates

The Washington DC metro, Denver, CO, and the Raleigh, NC metro areas are expected to see the most benefit from falling mortgage rates, according to a recent study from Realtor.com. In the study, it referenced that the DC and Denver areas have almost 75% of owner-occupied homes with a mortgage, a group that could stand to benefit from refinancing options. Topping out the least affected metros, with the highest shares of homes without a mortgage are New Orleans, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.[iv]

5. Oil’s Run Takes a Breather

Oil paused its five-day streak Tuesday as fears from Middle East escalation and China signaled no additional big stimulus packages. Crude eased 5% after surging 12% over the past five sessions. Traders are awaiting any retaliatory move from Tel Aviv against Tehran that could target Iran’s oil infrastructure. Interestingly, Hurricane Milton’s race towards Florida does not appear to be affecting prices, as Florida does not have any refineries that could impact crude production or refined products.[v]

6. Amazon Prime Day Bargains

Crest 3D Whitestrips, Apple AirPods Pro 2, and a Shark Navigator Vacuum, are among the 63+ best deals being featured in Amazon’s October Prime days that are running October 8 & 9. NBC Select has covered Prime Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday for the past five years as a comparison, and it has selected over 63 products as “the best of” this October’s Prime Day deals across every major category.[vi]

[i] Cox, Jeff, “Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates,” CNBC, October 8, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/hurricane-milton-could-cause-as-much-as-175-billion-in-damages-according-to-early-estimates.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[ii] Yeo Boon Ping, “CNBC Daily Open: U.S. economy’s fine, but markets driven by fear,” CNBC, October 8, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/cnbc-daily-open-us-economys-fine-but-markets-driven-by-fear.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[iii] Hur, Krystal, “ Why a key borrowing rate is above 4% again,” CNN Business, October 7, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/07/investing/benchmark-treasury-yield/index.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[iv] Genovese, Daniella, Housing markets that could see the biggest impact from falling mortgage rates,” FOXBusiness, October 8, 2024, https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/housing-markets-could-see-biggest-impact-from-falling-mortgage-rates. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[v] Ferré, Ines, “Oil sinks 4% as price run-up over Middle East conflict takes a pause, China stimulus disappoints,” Yahoo!finance, October 8, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-sinks-4-as-price-run-up-over-middle-east-conflict-takes-a-pause-china-stimulus-disappoints-153454812.html. Accessed October 8, 2024.

[vi] Malin, Zoe, “The 71+ absolute best October Prime Day deals to shop across every major category,” NBC select, October 8, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/select/shopping/amazon-october-prime-day-deals-2024-rcna173960. Accessed October 8, 2024.